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Predicting Completion in Agile Projects

The generally accepted way of assessing progress on a project, and predicting its completion, is to use a critical path method schedule. However, the CPM paradigm does not work across a wide range of projects where there is no predetermined sequence of working that must be followed. There may be a high level “road map” outlining the desired route to completion and/or specific constraints on the sequencing of parts of the work but in most agile projects, the people doing the work have a high degree of flexibility in choosing the way most of the work is accomplished.

The focus of this post is to offer a practical solution to the challenge of assessing progress, and calculating the likely completion date in agile projects.

WPM as an Alternative to ES and CPM
Work performance management (WPM) is designed as an alternative approach to project controls. It uses the same concept as earned schedule, but offers a simple, practical tool that uses project metrics that are already being used for other purposes.

The function of WPM is to assess progress and calculate a predicted completion date in a consistent, repeatable, and defensible way by comparing the amount of work achieved at a point in time with the amount of work planned to have been achieved at the same point in time. Then based on this data, you calculate an expected completion date.

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