20 April 2023
If the Future Is Unknowable, Why Plan for It?
Like many of you, I’ve sat through several quarterly or annual program reviews. One of the agenda items is usually a look back from the start of the period, and seeing how many goals were reached, how many of the planned items were completed, and what changes occurred along the way. It is not uncommon to find that about half of what was accomplished was what we expected, and the other half was new or unplanned. In fact, there were some reviews where we completed exactly zero of the things we went into the quarter or year hoping to get done. This meant, mathematically, that being on the plan was no better than a coin-flip as to if it would complete (at best), or a direct sign that something would never get done (at worst.) To the uninitiated, this meant that planning was a waste of time. I think that’s the wrong conclusion to draw.